What is a Delphi method?

The Delphi method is a structured technique for collective forecasting and decision-making, based on anonymous surveys of experts conducted in multiple rounds. The goal is to reach a consensus on complex issues, such as risk assessment or event forecasting.

The process includes:

• Selecting a group of experts.
• Conducting a series of surveys, where after each round, participants receive a summary of responses and can adjust their estimates.
• Final aggregation of opinions for decision-making.

The advantage of the method is reducing the influence of dominant personalities and group pressure, as well as allowing for the consideration of diverse expert opinions.